A few weeks ago, I detailed how just one injury to a UFC fighter could have negatively affected the whole balance of two of UFC’s biggest shows of 2016. How fortunate for them that an injury did occur, but instead it brought more positive fortune for the company. UFC Lightweight Champion Rafael Dos Anjos suffered a broken foot in training for his UFC 196 title bout with Connor McGregor, requiring him to take 4-6 weeks off. As it stands, the bout has been pushed back and will most likely occur as the main event of UFC 200 in July, giving the company the big storyline they were looking for to headline the show: their hottest star’s quest to become a champion in 2 different weight classes. But meanwhile, there are about 10,000 cavorting Irishmen (and women) who have hotel rooms and flights booked for Las Vegas for March 5th, and they demand a show. In order to protect the McGregor gravy train, and to ensure that there are no requests for refunds, a call went out to any contender in a 25 lb range and they found someone with enough fight and enough mouth to make it work. Nate Diaz will be McGregor’s next opponent and the recipient of a McGregor “Red Panty Night”. What’s intriguing about the fight is that it will be held at Welterweight (170lbs) as opposed to either of the weights McGregor has previously competed at (145 & 155 lbs). This covers all angles of risk for UFC, as it ensures a big buy rate for the show with a tough, trash talking opponent while it protects McGregor, in the event of a loss, from being derailed on championship quests for either title. There is risk for McGregor as to this date he hasn’t faced anyone with Diaz’ chin, long reach and jab, but Diaz also comes in on a 2-week camp. A loss for McGregor at a weight class where he has no intent on pursuing the title only puts the blemish on his current 15 fight win streak (7 of those since joining UFC). Were Diaz to lose, he’ll certainly mouth off about not having a full camp and will insert himself in line for a title shot should McGregor accomplish his goal of winning the Lightweight title. The new main event of UFC 196 is very intriguing, and will present a clash of styles and two fighters with a serious penchant for trash talking. Nate Diaz (one half of the infamous Diaz Brothers) is quite the accomplished star, using his jiu-jitsu, stamina and boxing skills to rack up the 2nd most post-fight bonuses in UFC history. He’s a bulldog who does not tire, and will do his best to control the pace and spacing of the fight. McGregor may find himself having to use his superior timing and speed inside and in the trenches to combat Diaz’ slight reach advantage. I do predict a win for The Notorious One here, if only because of Diaz’ short camp, but I do see it going all 5 rounds.
In the semi-main event (surprisingly the show’s lone title fight is not the main event), the woman who beat The Woman, Holly Holm makes her first defense of the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title vs the #2 contender Miesha Tate. The winner of this fight, barring injury, has a date with “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey in what will most certainly be the biggest women’s fight of all time and one of UFC’s most talked about fights ever. Holly Holm has not been taken down in a UFC fight as of yet, but she faces UFC’s best woman wrestler at 135 lbs. Tate has, over the years, elicited compliments on her wrestling ability from Olympic medal winning opponents (Sara McMann) to hated rivals (Rousey). Tate, after being overlooked for a title shot by UFC despite earning #1 contender status in July 2015, contemplated retiring from the sport if a 3rd match vs then-champion Rousey wasn’t going to come her way. Now, the there’s a chance the tables can be turned. All eyes will be on Holly Holm to see if her boxing skills can flummox Tate the way they did Rousey, and if her takedown defense is can stop a tried and true wrestler. Skill wise, I do put Holm ahead of Tate, as Holm’s ability to control the ring will give Tate fits, especially if Tate’s takedowns get stuffed. But in terms of who wants this fight more, it’s Tate, hands down. She’d honestly like nothing more to be at a press conference with the championship belt holding it in Ronda Rousey’s face, forcing her rival to face her one last time, but now as a challenger as it was back in March of 2012. While my gambling money is on Miesha Tate, my smart fight money is on Holly Holm to retain her title.
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Steve TozinA connoisseur of global sports, entertainment, pro-wrestling and mixed martial arts. Archives
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